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Starting to plan my 2020 holidays, I was wondering if bankruptcy of such a big travel group from the tourist perspective (of course not the one stranded in one of the resorts) planning a trip in a few month perspective would be beneficial or rather disadvantageous?

Flights

Of course flight ticket prices skyrocketed at first but it was caused by huge number of travellers required to abruptly end their trip and go back home, but it should (and probably already has) returned to normal.

Hotels

Hotels accommodating Thomas Cook clients took great hit because they lost future revenue, but it also means they have plenty of room they should be willing to give away for a reduced price (increasing supply), just to get any income out of them.

On the other hand those who totally depend on Thomas Cook might go bankrupt as well, reducing overall number of rooms (and lowering supply).

And there are clients of Thomas Cook as well, which have (probably) already planned their vacation and are willing to go for a family holiday on their own (or using any other travel agent). They will add to demand.

To sum up

My guesses are

  • flight ticket prices would go up (more people would go on their own which increases demand)
  • hotel prices would go down (some of them would be closed lowering supply but lowered demand should bring prices down)

Am I right or did I miss something? Should I wait with booking a flight and accommodation or use the current situation?

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Mark
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1 Answers1

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It's unlikely to have a detectable effect other than perhaps some small local markets. Thomas Cook was not all that big: they operated about 40,000 flights per year which is about 1/10 of 1% of the total number of flights that's about 40,000,000/year.

Hotel and flight pricing is heavily based on supply and demand and things like day of the week, season, special events, etc. are likely to create more daily swings in prices than all of Thomas Cook.

Hilmar
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