Is it likely that Russia has made fake allegations against Tourists in the past to exchange them as prisoners?

Question

With the recent exchange of prisoners and German politicians explicitly calling travel to Russia irresponsible, this question made me wonder:

Is it irresponsible to travel to Russia as a US citizen or EU citizen because you may be detained and kept prisoner without having done anything wrong? Or have previous prisoners probably done at least something wrong?

Answer 1

Is it irresponsible to travel to Russia as a US citizen or EU citizen

Yes, for many reasons.

because you may be detained and kept prisoner without having done anything wrong?

While this is unlikely the risk is higher than in most other countries. You do NOT want to give the Russian's even the tiniest excuse.

Or have previous prisoners probably done at least something wrong?

Hard to say. Perter Schoebel had a few gummy bears in his luggage that apparently contained weed. Ksenia Karelina was arrested for donating $50 to Ukraine. Some of the released prisoners were unwanted activists or journalists. For others the picture is murky and we'll never know for sure what really happened.

Answer 2

Tl;dr No, the risk is minimal, but even so is it worth it?

Very few Westerners are arrested in Russia compared to the number of people who visit. You hear about it a lot because when it does happen, it tends to be widely publicized.

Of those that have been, most have broken Russian laws (Griner, Fogel, Karelina - yes, sending money to a country that yours is in armed conflict with is a crime, and not just in Russia). A few (Gershkovich, Kurmasheva) have upset the government with public activity, i.e. beyond just a few tweets (Kurmasheva also technically did break the law, but it's unlikely anyone would have cared if she hadn't already made herself unwelcome). A couple are accused of espionage, which is difficult because you wouldn't expect an admission even if it's true. Spector is probably guilty, Whelan is uncertain. Trevor Reed may be guilty of a crime or may be a victim of police corruption - of course, that can happen without going anywhere. At a minimum, he was drunk and disorderly to the extent that someone called the police.

There does seem to be more risk for dual citizens and others with close ties to Russia, of course causation may be the other way - people with ties to Russia are more likely to do illegal things there.

All this to say - no, Russia is not randomly arresting tourists (they don't want to discourage tourism). You won't get into trouble for anything that wouldn't get a local into trouble. In fact you're rather less likely to have problems, most police don't want to be responsible for an international incident. The risk of being arrest as a regular tourist is minimal, significantly less than the ordinary risks of traveling. It shouldn't stop you if you have a strong reason to visit Russia.

Having said that, the consequences if anything does happen could be extremely serious, so unless there's a good reason to visit Russia specifically I'd recommend considering alternative destinations.

Edit: if you do visit, some advice: coming from a western country, it's possible you'll be taken aside for additional questioning at immigration, it happened to me once in 2022 but not after that. This isn't really anything to be concerned about, it's not much different from interviews you might have at the border in any western country (especially if coming from a less affluent country). Just answer honestly, as you should anywhere. Be aware though that they may ask to check your phone. It's likely to be fairly casual, they scanned my photo gallery for about 5 seconds and didn't look at any messengers, but to be on the safe side you probably don't want to have any pro-Ukraine statements or criticisms of Russia or its government too visible. If you've made any donations, it's not a problem as long as you're not a citizen but I still wouldn't advertise the fact. Once across the border - just don't be stupid. Russian cities are fairly safe as long as you exercise the same level of caution you should anywhere. Don't get drunk out of your mind in a strange city and don't jaywalk. Avoid large gatherings - almost certainly there's no problem, but as a tourist you're probably not able to judge that, so don't risk it. Don't bring in banned drugs, even if you have a prescription.

Answer 3

Or have previous prisoners probably done at least something wrong?

Let's look at the list of prisoners exchanged. Once we exclude Russian citizens and people who hold dual citizenship with Russia (and thus 10x more vulnerable than a regular tourist) we're left with:

1. Evan Gershkovich, a journalist. Arrested for writing articles about the Russian-Ukrainian war while in Russia. Fair by Western standards? No. Something a regular tourist is likely to be doing? Also no.
2. Rico Krieger, seemed to be involved with some shady proceedings around the Russia-Ukraine war. It's unclear to what extend the claims about him are true but he was definitely an anti-war activist at the very least.
3. Patrick Schöbel, arrested for smuggling cannabis gummy bears. Same thing happened with Brittney Griner in 2022. Feels silly here in the West where weed is de-jure or de-facto legal in many places but that's the law in Russia. The UAE has a similar zero-tolerance policy.
4. Paul Whelan, a shady character involved with the US intelligence community.

Is it irresponsible to travel to Russia as a US citizen or EU citizen because you may be detained and kept prisoner without having done anything wrong?

As long as you don't bring any drugs (including cannabis products, regardless of their legality in your home country) and don't get yourself involved with the Russia-Ukraine war or Russian intelligence services you'll be fine. Russia is not the safest country in the world and has its fair share of street crime, however their government is extremely unlikely to harass you for no reason.