When should I book my hotel if prices are inflated due to a major event?

Question

My problem: I recently booked a business trip about three months out, noticing slightly too late that there's a huge event (Formula 1 race) happening in town the previous weekend and all the remotely convenient and/or comfortable hotels are asking crazy rates (US$500+).

The usual rule of thumb of booking flights and hotels is the earlier the better, since prices usually go up but rarely come down. In this case, though, I have a sneaky suspicion that hotels may be demanding too much and there may be a fire sale of unsold inventory right before the event.

So: Do hotel prices generally go down right before big events? Bonus points for answers with data instead of just speculation.

(Note: this question has been edited, as I'm more interested in the general question above than the specifics of my situation.)

Interim answer 1: I've followed simbabque's answer and booked a mildly inconvenient and mildly crappy but fully cancellable and not crazy expensive hotel to cover my ass, and will check & report back on the hotel situation before arrival.

Interim answer 2: Idly poking around, I noticed that a big chain hotel near the office that had previously been 100% full had a room free for all three nights at our normal corporate rate (~US$120). Booked! But I'll still check before arrival and report back for science.

Very overdue final update: I didn't do a very thorough check because work, but a casual browse on Google Hotels did show a bunch of hotels offering rooms at less stratospheric prices (under $300). YMMV.

Answer 1

A lot of hotel booking sites offer free cancellation up to the day of the stay as an option that costs a few EUR or USD more. Business-oriented booking sites sometimes even have cancellation up to early evening of first day of the stay. (HRS.de is advertising this on TV right now in Germany as their main feature).

I would pay the few more dollars for that, get a room at the expensive rate, and then check back regularly, maybe even on the day you arrive. As soon as you find something reasonably cheap, cancel the expensive one.

This also works for flights, but those are often paid in advance, so you would have to fork out a lot of money to do that up front.

Also check international booking portals. You don't have to make your hotel booking through a booking portal that targets your country.

As mentioned in the comments, if you are not responsible for booking in your corporate setting, clarify this with your management, HR or whoever is in charge of booking, and have them do it.

Answer 2

If this is a Formula 1 event, I wouldn't bet on a last minute flash sale. You can be 99% sure that all the hotel rooms will be fully booked weeks in advance. By waiting, the risk you are taking it to see prices jumping even more.

Still there are some solutions :

• check if you can find any package including low cost Formula 1 tickets with the hotel (I know you aren't looking to see the race but you might find packages that includes a ticket with the hotel at a lower rate than the hotel alone)
• call the hotel directly, explain the situation and try to negotiate. If you have some kind of level in a loyalty program for that hotel, it might help.
• check out Air BnB offers.
• place a price alert and check daily how the price is fluctuating, based on that, make your booking when you feel it is ok for you.
• stay far from the race. It might be cheaper to be 50 Kms and pay for the taxi even if it isn't really convenient.
• rent a camping car (trying to be creative here) :)

Answer 3

So should I take my chances and hope for the best on HotelTonight & friends on/just before arrival? Or should I bite the bullet and pay lots now, to avoid having to sell a kidney if rates go up even more? (And no, I can't change my travel plans.)

The last thing I would do is "take my chances" on a business trip. You need that trip no matter what, so you're in no position to gamble.

Also, my understanding is that you don't pay that price yourself, your company does. Having to spend those $500 from your pocket after all the taxes seems like a big deal (and it is), but it's much less of a problem for your company to write off a $500 expense. On the other hand, if you gamble and have issues with your trip later on, that will be a big deal for both you and your company.

Also, I would advice against booking the hotel yourself, unless it is your direct responsibility. If your company has people responsible for bookings, by all means let them handle the situation. You'll save yourself from the risks of doing something wrong, which you don't want to take when considerable amounts of money are involved.

Answer 4

To decide if you want postpone the Hotel booking to very close to the Formula1 Race. You should include what country will be this event, not all the formula1 race have the same attendance. Some are really overcrowd and others you can see the empty seats on tv.

China and Russia are an example of low attendace because not so many fans and also very far so you can expect some price reduction at the end, Japan is totally the opossite very passionate fans.

New races are also very crowd like last year race in Mexico.

Also events are never the same, if the event is at end of formula1 season and the fight for championship is very tight the number of attendance go UP on last minute. But if is like last year where the champion was already decide with two race remainning the buzz get low.

Other example was this year superbowl on San Francisco seat prices where around 3000$ and previous one in New York price were around 5000$. Not sure if ppl like more NY than SF but my guess hotel prices on NY were much higher too.

Final advice just be aware about the event schedule (Free Practice, Qualification, Race, Concerts, etc), traffic jam are very frequent on those times. So try to book for hotels far from the formula1 track and you may get better prices and less traffic.