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I have an international flight (well, just to Canada) from San Diego early tomorrow morning. There is a hurricane due to hit Baja/San Diego/Southern California tomorrow also. I'm hoping the flight leaves before the weather arrives...

How soon do the airlines or authorities typically cancel flights due to expected extreme weather such as hurricanes? The weather is fine here right now, the wind is forecast to start picking up around 6am tomorrow, with the worst of it due to start from midday (so well after my flight due to leave) - Do they cancel flights because they expect the weather to be bad (so could be notified of cancellation tonight)? Or do they normally wait until the weather actually is bad before they cancel?

And how bad do winds need to be before they cancel flights? The winds/weather etc. don't concern me, I've flown in some pretty bad weather before (I trust the pilots) - I just want to plan ahead for if the flight is affected.

Hurricane Hilary - National Hurricane Center

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Midavalo
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1 Answers1

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That's impossible to know. It's not just up to the airline: the airport may close or restrict traffic, the FAA may close certain corridors, etc. and each of those has their own timeline and decision making process.

There is no incentive for the airline to cancel early even if the chances of the flight going are already low. That's why most airlines cancel fairly late: there is no benefit to them for cancelling timely.

Obviously you should closely monitor the status of your flight but it's also very helpful to check the status of the incoming aircraft. If your airplane is not getting there, than its highly likely that your flight will be cancelled too.

You can also track cancellations at San Diego, for example: https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today/SAN . If that starts shooting up, than chances are your flight will be cancelled too.

Hilmar
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